WASHINGTON, D.C. — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday declined to commit to a June rate cut, a May rate cut, an April cut, or to the existence of rate cuts as a general phenomenon, in a 53-minute press conference that ended exactly where it started except everyone in the room was now thirstier.
The Federal Open Market Committee held its benchmark rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%, a decision Powell described as ‘appropriate,’ ‘prudent,’ and ‘consistent with our framework,’ before pausing to take a sip of water that two analysts later described as the most decisive thing he did all afternoon.
‘He used the word “carefully” eleven times,’ said Devra Holst, who runs the rates desk at Beacon Strategy and was eating a chopped salad over her keyboard when the conference began. ‘He used “data-dependent” fourteen times. He used “patient” so many times my intern stopped tallying and just started crying.’ Holst said the firm’s models now price in a June cut at 62%, up from 61%, based on what she described as ‘his eyebrow doing something.’
The updated Summary of Economic Projections showed the median dot moving down 25 basis points for 2026, though three dots clustered noticeably higher and one dot appeared, in the published PDF, to be partially behind another dot, which several Fed-watchers interpreted as ‘dovish but shy.’
Reporters spent the first 22 minutes of the Q&A trying to get Powell to characterize the labor market. He characterized it as ‘solid,’ then ‘cooling,’ then ‘solid but cooling,’ then declined a follow-up by noting that the Committee ‘does not pre-commit to a path.’ A reporter from CNBC asked the same question phrased as a hypothetical. Powell answered it as a hypothetical, which is to say, he did not.
By minute 39, a Bloomberg correspondent in the third row asked Powell directly whether the next move would be a cut. Powell said the Committee was ‘well-positioned’ to move in either direction, a phrase that has now appeared in six consecutive press conferences and which traders at one Stamford fund have started using to order lunch.
Markets, which had been waiting all afternoon to be told what to think, did the thing they always do, which is decide for themselves. The S&P closed up 0.4% on what Holst called ‘the dovish reading of him not saying anything.’ The 10-year fell 6 basis points on the same evidence. Gold rallied because gold always rallies. Bitcoin moved $1,800 in a direction nobody could explain to a regulator.
The press conference’s most quotable moment came at minute 47, when Powell, asked whether he was concerned about renewed price pressures in services, said ‘we’re watching that closely,’ which is also what he said in January, October, and the meeting before October. A Reuters reporter glanced at her notes, glanced back up, and asked a different question.
Powell left the podium at 3:23 p.m. The Eccles Building’s lobby carpet, a particular oatmeal-beige that absorbs both sound and accountability, returned to its usual silence. By 3:24, the first sell-side note had hit inboxes with the subject line ‘Dovish Hold,’ and at 3:26, a second note arrived from a different desk titled ‘Hawkish Hold.’ Both quoted the same six sentences.